Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 26.266202 27.949509 29.750717 31.833008 34.188770 36.789350 39.902855
2025-11-30 23.756597 26.044018 28.630184 31.811420 35.678966 40.312252 46.421203
2025-12-07 22.104101 24.661740 27.650728 31.473482 36.346381 42.526234 51.282869
2025-12-14 20.370031 22.980165 26.095682 30.183378 35.563872 42.666688 53.282734
2025-12-21 19.568448 22.332489 25.706073 30.255908 36.461129 45.037589 58.703753
2025-12-28 19.007249 21.922834 25.555530 30.584048 37.682928 47.959356 65.486579
2026-01-04 18.132944 21.056299 24.747378 29.944642 37.453480 48.676735 68.784606
2026-01-11 17.820176 20.882182 24.818561 30.493094 38.962974 52.224456 77.834489
2026-01-18 17.434642 20.585605 24.697982 30.746423 40.035212 55.202793 86.674897
2026-01-25 16.816059 19.948823 24.076235 30.224474 39.841592 55.988534 91.206783
2026-02-01 16.234422 19.335762 23.454752 29.657870 39.517331 56.485738 95.238453
2026-02-08 15.582270 18.603590 22.635817 28.748739 38.560738 55.709846 96.049141
2026-02-15 15.241962 18.345480 22.556285 29.087465 39.937310 59.980901 112.720366
2026-02-22 14.789088 17.920867 22.229155 29.042934 40.707184 63.369237 130.005354
2026-03-01 14.316201 17.439400 21.782773 28.759378 40.997419 65.805371 146.550978
2026-03-08 13.652762 16.663205 20.866448 27.656746 39.677240 64.443201 148.432462
2026-03-15 13.358730 16.393745 20.679717 27.718945 40.517149 68.200000 175.276401
2026-03-22 13.144551 16.226113 20.631680 27.999654 41.802556 73.402980 218.676428
2026-03-29 12.735896 15.762985 20.114598 27.452313 41.389277 74.169563 239.233220
2026-04-05 12.604568 15.694130 20.192007 27.921880 43.088396 81.190161 328.576263
2026-04-12 12.420933 15.540444 20.128760 28.138439 44.289894 87.296761 455.556730
2026-04-19 12.097164 15.169098 19.708922 27.692020 43.999873 88.677735 538.280601
2026-04-26 11.782204 14.801454 19.281040 27.206391 43.574101 89.527831 630.960530